JayJayBaxter
0xaced454d1cd062dd69b0cf76a7935e0703d6e11f
- Realised P&L
- $-10.24
- Volume
- $19.9k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $16.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? · No | 0.920 | 0.805 | $16.10 | −$2.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.58at 0.430Bitcoin all time high by January 31?
- +$14.23at 0.260Will Biden say "Kamala" or "Harris" in ABC interview?
- +$4.64at 0.660Euro Finals extra time?
- +$3.20at 0.610Will Biden say "Drop out" in ABC interview?
- +$2.58at 0.660Will Biden say "Old" in ABC interview?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-02 19:30 | Bitcoin all time high by January 31? | BUY | 0.4299999836 | $11.00 |
| 01-02 19:30 | Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? | BUY | 0.95 | $11.00 |
| 10-29 19:48 | Texans vs. Jets | BUY | 0.48 | $21.60 |
| 09-10 12:01 | Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series? | BUY | 0.001 | $11.04 |
| 09-10 11:59 | Will Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate? | BUY | 0.5799998144 | $3.00 |
| 09-10 11:59 | Will the debate have 75 million or more viewers? | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 11:59 | Who will speak more at the debate? | BUY | 0.6699999625 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 11:59 | Debate Bingo - Card 2 | BUY | 0.7799998596 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 11:59 | Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 11:58 | Who is asked the first debate question? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 11:58 | Debate Bingo - Card 1 | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 11:58 | Debate Bingo - Card 3 | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 11:58 | Will the Debate finish by 10:30 PM? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 11:58 | Microphones muted during ABC debate? | BUY | 0.984 | $5.00 |
| 07-13 20:24 | Infowars shut down before August? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |