lapol
0xaccf0b4cb4f398abb57fccab06c6e0b2655c279e
- Realised P&L
- $-122.90
- Volume
- $27.3k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $70.42
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.825 | $38.45 | +$1.17 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.980 | $16.87 | +$1.89 |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.966 | 0.972 | $15.10 | +$0.09 |
| Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? · No | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.14 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.85 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $710 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.50 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$154.40at 0.143Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$73.68at 0.230Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$19.82at 0.084Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$15.07at 0.070QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
- +$14.38at 0.365North Korea missile test/launch by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 09:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | SELL | 0.991 | $31.16 |
| 10-18 07:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | SELL | 0.99 | $15.56 |
| 10-15 07:00 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | SELL | 0.987 | $30.66 |
| 10-15 05:00 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | SELL | 0.988 | $15.34 |
| 10-15 01:00 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of October 12 2026? | SELL | 0.914 | $17.76 |
| 10-15 01:00 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of October 12 2026? | SELL | 0.939 | $14.08 |
| 10-14 01:00 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $15.95 |
| 10-14 01:00 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 14? | SELL | 0.9 | $10.85 |
| 10-14 01:00 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 14? | SELL | 0.905 | $5.42 |
| 10-12 17:00 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of October 12 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $13.96 |
| 10-12 17:00 | NATO downs another Russian drone by October 15? | SELL | 0.68 | $12.27 |
| 10-12 14:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | SELL | 0.992 | $16.34 |
| 10-10 23:00 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $15.67 |
| 10-10 21:00 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $15.56 |
| 10-09 23:00 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.535 | $8.51 |