REDALARM
0xacc841a647ddd586bfd2f4d5b82bf60019983434
- Realised P&L
- $51.90
- Volume
- $29.4k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $258.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.125 | $184.42 | +$45.10 |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.050 | $45.45 | +$5.46 |
| Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $11.25 | −$3.74 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.018 | $9.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.002 | $7.25 | −$18.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.32at 0.790Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$0.01at 0.260Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$-7.73at 0.720Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 14:34 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0155339806 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 14:34 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 14:32 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 09-17 14:31 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.019 | $10.00 |
| 09-17 14:31 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.00 |
| 09-17 14:30 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0052428565 | $25.00 |
| 09-17 14:30 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.639 | $54.47 |
| 08-29 22:36 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.15 | $12.00 |
| 08-29 22:35 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 08-29 22:35 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.032 | $29.09 |
| 07-07 21:54 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7122962628 | $60.73 |
| 07-07 19:24 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.9699734555 | $61.39 |
| 05-30 14:52 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.12 | $26.07 |
| 05-30 14:51 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0439999995 | $80.00 |
| 05-30 14:51 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.03 | $113.68 |