0xAC598662CD174a257Ca8FED3F6Df101053b0aDA5-1726313455237
0xac598662cd174a257ca8fed3f6df101053b0ada5
- Realised P&L
- $173.95
- Volume
- $13.9k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $472.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.945 | $472.50 | +$97.50 |
| Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.266 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.15at 0.891Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$15.03at 0.408Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?
- +$3.09at 0.999Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16?
- +$2.81at 0.740Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?
- +$2.50at 0.999Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 11:46 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.967 | $38.68 |
| 07-21 11:45 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6 | $1.05 |
| 05-14 11:52 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.887428398 | $320.00 |
| 01-15 15:28 | Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? | BUY | 0.987999999 | $4.00 |
| 12-28 08:53 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.7099999503 | $3.00 |
| 12-11 15:49 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 11-08 18:36 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5699994984 | $1.00 |
| 11-08 18:36 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.7 | $3.88 |
| 10-10 13:12 | Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2659999375 | $2.00 |
| 10-10 13:11 | Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.7399999833 | $8.00 |
| 10-10 13:11 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.7199998416 | $4.00 |
| 10-10 13:10 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 07-16 10:04 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.5k |
| 07-16 10:04 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on July 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.5k |
| 07-16 10:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.1k |