badbias
0xac4f7c9518eeeb74d863a0fa5146c193779cf7e8
- Realised P&L
- $7.1k
- Volume
- $898.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,323
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,323
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.190Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
- +$1.3kat 0.380Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
- +$1.2kat 0.559Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
- +$814.54at 0.496Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
- +$717.79at 0.636Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-19 23:50 | Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? | BUY | 0.28 | $306.60 |
| 05-19 20:45 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $54.80 |
| 05-19 20:42 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31? | BUY | 0.176072421 | $369.40 |
| 05-19 19:01 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.3165043798 | $177.41 |
| 05-19 19:00 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.369229266 | $1.9k |
| 05-19 18:49 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.3k |
| 05-19 18:32 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.218752046 | $1.1k |
| 05-19 17:37 | Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30? | BUY | 0.0956372935 | $243.11 |
| 05-19 17:37 | Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? | BUY | 0.0973809524 | $204.50 |
| 05-19 17:37 | Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30? | BUY | 0.2105834306 | $180.47 |
| 05-19 17:35 | Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? | BUY | 0.3544014085 | $201.30 |
| 05-19 17:29 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? | BUY | 0.18 | $27.00 |
| 05-19 17:28 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? | BUY | 0.27680289 | $111.49 |
| 05-19 17:25 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.3477963831 | $218.09 |
| 01-03 05:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |