WR100
0xac26f794b6b7baa2823db9e68caedfef5a5406ff
- Realised P&L
- $188.15
- Volume
- $206.0k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $309.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.070 | $211.50 | −$145.50 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.075 | $97.50 | −$97.50 |
| Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? · No | 0.108 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$965.98 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.252 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$201.48 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? · No | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.60 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.136Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$2.5kat 0.093Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
- +$418.72at 0.173Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?
- +$364.00at 0.060Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?
- +$263.07at 0.640MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 18:43 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.585 | $99.45 |
| 06-25 08:01 | Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2508372958 | $25.64 |
| 06-21 21:13 | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1932538218 | $1000.00 |
| 06-11 21:00 | Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY | 0.19 | $6.27 |
| 06-10 06:01 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.076 | $81.34 |
| 06-02 07:57 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $140.00 |
| 06-02 07:49 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $56.00 |
| 06-02 07:45 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $42.00 |
| 06-02 07:43 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | SELL | 0.14 | $42.00 |
| 05-31 22:15 | Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round? | SELL | 0.0100354834 | $18.49 |
| 05-29 20:27 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? | BUY | 0.11 | $99.00 |
| 05-29 20:27 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? | BUY | 0.11 | $165.00 |
| 05-29 20:27 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? | BUY | 0.11 | $572.00 |
| 05-29 20:25 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? | BUY | 0.1 | $53.11 |
| 05-26 22:38 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $60.68 |