0xac200f0f2c2bbfd4ffe9ebef01f035e1218b2b2d
- Realised P&L
- $-4.71
- Volume
- $636.00
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $37.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.934 | 0.964 | $7.71 | +$0.24 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.920 | $7.36 | +$0.64 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.933 | 0.971 | $6.80 | +$0.27 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.935 | $4.67 | +$0.57 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.040 | 0.127 | $3.81 | +$2.61 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.105 | $2.52 | −$1.60 |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.201 | 0.095 | $1.90 | −$2.12 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · No | 0.500 | 0.895 | $1.79 | +$0.79 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.043 | $0.47 | −$1.29 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.439 | 0.087 | $0.44 | −$1.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.33at 0.869Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.11at 0.850U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
- +$0.08at 0.871Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
- +$0.06at 0.437Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.04at 0.953Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 09:05 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 07-09 09:04 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.875 | $7.00 |
| 07-04 10:32 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $6.72 |
| 07-02 00:51 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $8.28 |
| 06-29 16:41 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.71 |
| 06-26 01:46 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.72 |
| 06-16 17:20 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.934 | $7.47 |
| 05-29 05:41 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.938 | $10.32 |
| 05-29 05:41 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.964 | $4.82 |
| 05-29 05:40 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.953 | $4.76 |
| 05-24 06:32 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.20 |
| 05-24 06:32 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $8.64 |
| 05-24 06:32 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.439 | $2.19 |
| 05-22 05:13 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.31 |
| 05-22 05:13 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $10.12 |