0xAc015Dc6388B12f10AE2632873D19c3B511dB71e-1757504372233
0xac015dc6388b12f10ae2632873d19c3b511db71e
- Realised P&L
- $49.33
- Volume
- $660.89
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $139.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hungary win on 2026-10-05? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.355 | $139.85 | +$9.85 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.12at 0.570Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$14.12at 0.598Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?
- +$-18.91at 0.810Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 13:14 | Will Hungary win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.3299999999 | $130.00 |
| 12-21 01:48 | Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? | SELL | 0.0442025111 | $1.09 |
| 09-10 20:38 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.5699999972 | $85.00 |
| 09-10 20:37 | Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 20:37 | Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? | BUY | 0.8099999931 | $20.00 |
| 09-10 20:33 | Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year? | BUY | 0.5979999917 | $21.00 |