BearKingdom
0xabe78c9711802ea03af9b0fcb7f3f82853fad623
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $851.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $272.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.559 | 0.969 | $156.0k | +$65.9k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.435 | 0.715 | $57.1k | +$22.3k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.945 | $44.7k | +$9.2k |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.050 | $8.1k | +$248.27 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.236 | 0.705 | $6.5k | +$4.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.098Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$1.9kat 0.254Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$1.4kat 0.689US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$-8.0kat 0.233Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 02:45 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $630.52 |
| 09-14 02:44 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.7364446437 | $1.7k |
| 09-14 02:42 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.7219671701 | $3.2k |
| 08-28 17:14 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.053 | $706.78 |
| 08-13 01:11 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.206 | $0.05 |
| 08-13 01:10 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.053 | $858.57 |
| 07-19 02:40 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.5997976181 | $15.9k |
| 07-19 02:05 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.5957491951 | $801.18 |
| 07-18 04:50 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $130.45 |
| 07-18 02:47 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $530.85 |
| 07-17 02:03 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.648820536 | $860.63 |
| 07-16 03:14 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $12.8k |
| 07-15 18:30 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.052 | $15.55 |
| 07-15 18:29 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.6179099004 | $27.5k |
| 07-15 18:12 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.145 | $288.39 |