0xabe614b6591de1566375d21fb83ab4220410ad92
- Realised P&L
- $781.88
- Volume
- $29.4k
- Markets traded
- 119
- Open portfolio
- $0.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded119
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027? · Yes | 0.471 | 0.115 | $0.58 | −$1.78 |
| Will David Schweikert win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.70 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.25at 0.496Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
- +$60.13at 0.329Will Trump say "Japan" or "South Korea" during the announcement on December 22?
- +$59.95at 0.624Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$47.15at 0.3082026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?
- +$47.00at 0.0752026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-11 13:10 | Brex IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.49 |
| 02-11 13:10 | Brex IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.151 | $1.53 |
| 01-18 16:06 | Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.054 | $10.80 |
| 01-15 22:34 | Will Trump say "Biden" during Panthers visit? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.03 |
| 01-15 19:48 | Will Trump say "Biden" during Panthers visit? | BUY | 0.34 | $13.60 |
| 01-15 19:39 | Will Trump say "Biden" during Panthers visit? | SELL | 0.37 | $1.85 |
| 01-15 19:38 | Will Trump say "Biden" during Panthers visit? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 01-15 19:34 | Will Trump say "Biden" during Panthers visit? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 01-14 08:44 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.38 |
| 01-11 18:43 | Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.30 |
| 01-11 14:00 | Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.71 |
| 01-10 15:57 | Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.20 |
| 01-10 15:51 | Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.72 |
| 01-10 15:35 | Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? | SELL | 0.083 | $4.98 |
| 01-10 15:27 | Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? | SELL | 0.92 | $4.60 |