PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

iamnottungsten

0xaba8c7bd4d24bbbdbfcc1ecefd9aacb675844bac

Realised P&L
$-9.18
Volume
$446.59
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$101.69

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5800.525$25.34$2.66
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? · Yes0.3640.475$22.69+$5.29
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3700.445$17.80+$3.00
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4400.500$9.65+$1.16
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? · Yes0.3900.435$8.70+$0.90
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3600.335$6.70$0.50
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? · Yes0.4500.565$5.65+$1.15
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? · Yes0.6400.660$5.16+$0.16

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-24 17:04Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?BUY0.45$4.50
07-13 02:17Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.206$4.12
07-04 16:06Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?BUY0.6599998944$2.00
07-04 16:04Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?BUY0.5399999654$5.00
07-03 06:10Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?BUY0.64$5.00
06-25 03:53Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?BUY0.1099999032$1.00
06-24 16:42Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?BUY0.359999987$10.00
06-24 16:39Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.5799999921$28.00
06-24 14:22Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.829999956$10.00
06-17 05:57Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.133$2.66
06-17 05:57Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.057$1.14
06-17 05:57Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.102$2.04
06-17 05:55Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?BUY0.44$8.49
06-17 05:54Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?BUY0.36$7.20
04-12 14:05Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?BUY0.37$14.80