iamnottungsten
0xaba8c7bd4d24bbbdbfcc1ecefd9aacb675844bac
- Realised P&L
- $-9.18
- Volume
- $446.59
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $101.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.525 | $25.34 | −$2.66 |
| Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? · Yes | 0.364 | 0.475 | $22.69 | +$5.29 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.445 | $17.80 | +$3.00 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.500 | $9.65 | +$1.16 |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.435 | $8.70 | +$0.90 |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.335 | $6.70 | −$0.50 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.565 | $5.65 | +$1.15 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.660 | $5.16 | +$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.26at 0.540Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
- +$2.05at 0.830Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?
- +$1.46at 0.133Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.03at 0.660Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
- +$-1.00at 0.110Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 17:04 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 07-13 02:17 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.206 | $4.12 |
| 07-04 16:06 | Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 16:04 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | BUY | 0.5399999654 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 06:10 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 06-25 03:53 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 16:42 | Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? | BUY | 0.359999987 | $10.00 |
| 06-24 16:39 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999921 | $28.00 |
| 06-24 14:22 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.829999956 | $10.00 |
| 06-17 05:57 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.133 | $2.66 |
| 06-17 05:57 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.057 | $1.14 |
| 06-17 05:57 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.102 | $2.04 |
| 06-17 05:55 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $8.49 |
| 06-17 05:54 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 04-12 14:05 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $14.80 |