0xaB5FaF4906aD4C554Fdca082e71a5772b03D48c9-1780320804205
0xab5faf4906ad4c554fdca082e71a5772b03d48c9
- Realised P&L
- $-13.75
- Volume
- $528.32
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $22.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.476 | 0.695 | $11.69 | +$3.69 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.013 | $5.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.565 | $4.63 | −$0.37 |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.115 | $1.17 | −$3.83 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more? · No | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? · No | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? · No | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.04at 0.530SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
- +$8.33at 0.550SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
- +$2.35at 0.811Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.04at 0.960Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$0.65at 0.612Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:42 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.0118800119 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 13:06 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 07-30 17:02 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.057416216 | $1.00 |
| 07-28 15:31 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 11:37 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 07-25 11:37 | Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin? | BUY | 0.0959999798 | $4.00 |
| 07-19 19:40 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999707 | $3.00 |
| 07-19 13:02 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.3689999671 | $5.00 |
| 07-13 12:36 | Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 07-13 12:36 | Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.0789999769 | $3.00 |
| 07-10 19:42 | Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? | BUY | 0.9649999942 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 19:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $25.00 |
| 07-10 19:09 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.4899999804 | $5.00 |
| 06-12 17:04 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.73 |
| 06-12 11:57 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY | 0.5399999903 | $10.00 |