0xab3a4e11133f85d90ca2aa3a859278c047e135b6
0xab3a4e11133f85d90ca2aa3a859278c047e135b6
- Realised P&L
- $-350.96
- Volume
- $7.9k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $37.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.620 | 0.665 | $10.73 | +$0.73 |
| Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.165 | $9.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will the Washington Commanders have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.655 | $6.82 | −$3.18 |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.033 | $4.17 | −$5.62 |
| Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2026 NFC West? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.115 | $3.52 | −$11.48 |
| Paris curfew by October 31? · Yes | 0.278 | 0.085 | $3.02 | −$6.87 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.98at 0.569Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026?
- +$24.50at 0.510Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $465 in July?
- +$15.23at 0.345US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
- +$13.08at 0.533Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?
- +$11.01at 0.625Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 12:56 | Paris curfew by October 31? | BUY | 0.2783339297 | $9.89 |
| 10-18 12:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $54.38 |
| 10-18 12:55 | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.96 | $28.92 |
| 10-12 12:46 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | SELL | 0.8 | $26.66 |
| 10-12 12:45 | Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting? | SELL | 0.6553693694 | $29.10 |
| 10-11 12:40 | Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? | SELL | 0.4789217436 | $37.58 |
| 10-11 12:19 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0774184179 | $9.79 |
| 10-11 11:46 | Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? | BUY | 0.6372549011 | $50.00 |
| 10-07 05:02 | Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting? | BUY | 0.5604614158 | $24.89 |
| 10-06 13:54 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $55.35 |
| 10-03 07:13 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999933 | $50.00 |
| 10-03 07:08 | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.829999998 | $25.00 |
| 09-27 00:59 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | BUY | 0.75 | $25.00 |
| 09-26 22:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $50.00 |
| 09-19 23:04 | Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $10.00 |