Northcottjg
0xab238270314b5d45d2d6a01b61351b11620229bd
- Realised P&L
- $2.46
- Volume
- $19.0k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $0.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.021 | $0.37 | −$0.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.97at 0.951Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?
- +$9.62at 0.100Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?
- +$7.97at 0.956Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.87at 0.971US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.48at 0.938KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-22 09:07 | Will Aliyu Wadada Ahmed win the 2027 Nasarawa State gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.42 | $42.00 |
| 08-17 05:19 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $422.38 |
| 08-10 07:16 | Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.957 | $402.90 |
| 07-23 09:12 | KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | SELL | 0.939 | $10.33 |
| 07-23 08:10 | KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | BUY | 0.938 | $454.93 |
| 07-16 07:34 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $365.75 |
| 07-13 06:27 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.955 | $458.39 |
| 07-13 05:16 | Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.956 | $449.32 |
| 06-19 04:48 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.083 | $0.56 |
| 06-19 04:48 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.084 | $75.35 |
| 06-19 03:00 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.054 | $0.97 |
| 06-19 02:44 | Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? | SELL | 0.09 | $84.60 |
| 06-18 07:21 | Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? | SELL | 0.11 | $105.82 |
| 06-18 06:51 | Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | SELL | 0.057 | $52.16 |
| 06-17 10:46 | Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? | SELL | 0.068 | $65.96 |