0xab0C4B39397B6F2Bd6ed81a936399f0da95e2cA3-1767532072927
0xab0c4b39397b6f2bd6ed81a936399f0da95e2ca3
- Realised P&L
- $-10.4k
- Volume
- $153.0k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.338 | 0.046 | $511.50 | −$3.2k |
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.185 | $412.80 | −$100.41 |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.059 | $268.12 | −$731.87 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.065 | $195.00 | −$914.98 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.611 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.379Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$1.9kat 0.656Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$954.22at 0.816US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$560.00at 0.627US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$234.52at 0.857US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 01:24 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0221712286 | $124.16 |
| 06-13 15:15 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 06-13 15:14 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $180.00 |
| 06-13 15:12 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $450.00 |
| 06-13 00:20 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $295.00 |
| 06-13 00:18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $118.00 |
| 06-13 00:18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $118.00 |
| 05-16 12:59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.6k |
| 04-23 15:04 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.89 | $1.3k |
| 04-23 14:57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $1.3k |
| 04-22 10:47 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999994 | $1.2k |
| 04-22 10:47 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.9926930069 | $1.2k |
| 04-19 14:58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $977.00 |
| 03-11 03:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.056 | $364.00 |
| 03-09 21:33 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.2500412626 | $1.5k |