Luke1906
0xab0188884ba7b4d1618de6f8bfbebdbfd6e5a875
- Realised P&L
- $4.41
- Volume
- $10.8k
- Markets traded
- 430
- Open portfolio
- $62.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded430
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on September 18? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $31.32 | +$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 18? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $31.02 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.03at 0.749Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 32°C on April 24?
- +$9.73at 0.750Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23?
- +$9.68at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on April 25?
- +$9.58at 0.749Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19?
- +$9.58at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C or higher on April 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 01:59 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.00 |
| 09-17 12:54 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.9989999787 | $31.30 |
| 09-13 04:57 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.9989999977 | $29.90 |
| 09-11 22:46 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $20.70 |
| 09-11 03:31 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on September 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.30 |
| 09-10 20:36 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.70 |
| 09-07 14:10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 8? | BUY | 0.9969999793 | $25.20 |
| 09-06 21:05 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on September 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.40 |
| 09-06 15:01 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on September 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $8.50 |
| 09-06 05:23 | Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.46 |
| 09-05 23:32 | Will "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.07 |
| 09-05 08:11 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 5? | BUY | 0.9989999778 | $7.82 |
| 09-05 02:08 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on September 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.34 |
| 09-04 22:23 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on September 5? | BUY | 0.998999987 | $28.60 |
| 09-04 17:03 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on September 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.80 |