CatalinRadut
0xaae6d056c3c753d5c3230dccd7d276f12fa87689
- Realised P&L
- $-20.90
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $2.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Patient Zero" hit 45m first week streams? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.515 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.085 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Rihanna release an album in 2026? · Yes | 0.311 | 0.130 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
| Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.046 | $0.24 | −$0.76 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? · No | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in April? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Beyoncé release a new song in 2026? · No | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.16 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.349 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.64at 0.039Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
- +$18.61at 0.051Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?
- +$11.50at 0.080Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 300k and 350k?
- +$5.49at 0.154Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.00at 0.250Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 09:38 | Will "Patient Zero" hit 45m first week streams? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 09:38 | Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 04-22 20:22 | Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 20:16 | Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | BUY | 0.0988142292 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 16:37 | Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | BUY | 0.0632055172 | $7.16 |
| 03-30 16:35 | Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in April? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 03-30 16:33 | Will Beyoncé release a new song in 2026? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 03-25 19:49 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5199999813 | $10.00 |
| 03-25 19:49 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5139999993 | $10.00 |
| 03-21 00:34 | Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 03-21 00:32 | Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m? | BUY | 0.0509999762 | $2.00 |
| 03-21 00:25 | Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3m and 3.5m? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 03-21 00:25 | Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3.5m and 4m? | BUY | 0.0226920762 | $10.00 |
| 03-21 00:23 | Will Rihanna release an album in 2026? | BUY | 0.3112840467 | $1.00 |
| 03-21 00:22 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |