willsom
0xaa99a6c279d34492683db6ff1818aa1f8485dbbf
- Realised P&L
- $42.8k
- Volume
- $1.94M
- Markets traded
- 673
- Open portfolio
- $18.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded673
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.8kat 0.989MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.6kat 0.140US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.264Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- +$1.6kat 0.620Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.627Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 20:22 | Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | BUY | 0.4394581904 | $170.33 |
| 08-02 20:04 | Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6530047237 | $1.0k |
| 08-02 16:59 | Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? | BUY | 0.24 | $144.00 |
| 08-02 16:02 | Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.1283424196 | $183.39 |
| 08-02 04:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $315.34 |
| 08-02 04:31 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.2781861205 | $337.40 |
| 07-28 22:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.37 | $947.16 |
| 07-28 22:45 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.38 | $570.00 |
| 07-28 22:43 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $381.56 |
| 07-28 22:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.7910872905 | $90.63 |
| 07-28 22:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.7355438198 | $84.26 |
| 07-28 18:17 | Zelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday? | SELL | 0.0850050906 | $25.05 |
| 07-28 16:53 | Zelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday? | BUY | 0.3662656734 | $119.47 |
| 07-28 15:27 | Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $136.50 |
| 07-27 21:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.518 | $521.51 |