Hexagon555
0xaa98a97f71cbe19348798775b23696c9baa290bb
- Realised P&L
- $-25.0k
- Volume
- $4.20M
- Markets traded
- 771
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded771
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? · Yes | 0.822 | 0.835 | $1.2k | +$19.29 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? · No | 0.850 | 0.985 | $408.57 | +$55.82 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? · No | 0.798 | 0.992 | $223.68 | +$43.69 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? · No | 0.920 | 0.960 | $36.92 | +$1.52 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$86.68 |
| Will Trump say "Economy" or "Economic" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$114.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.964S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23?
- +$1.7kat 0.890WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?
- +$1.4kat 0.111Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.450Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.238Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 14:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.83 | $49.80 |
| 09-26 14:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.83 | $81.33 |
| 09-26 13:52 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.83 | $20.75 |
| 09-26 13:52 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.83 | $20.75 |
| 09-26 13:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.83 | $390.93 |
| 09-26 13:41 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.82 | $309.96 |
| 09-26 13:40 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.82 | $17.46 |
| 09-26 13:39 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.81 | $320.76 |
| 09-24 17:39 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 24? | BUY | 0.99 | $17.82 |
| 09-24 17:20 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 24? | BUY | 0.964 | $9.64 |
| 09-24 17:20 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 24? | BUY | 0.9689741602 | $374.99 |
| 09-24 17:02 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 24? | SELL | 0.100153541 | $61.09 |
| 09-24 16:19 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 24? | BUY | 0.13 | $79.30 |
| 09-24 15:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | BUY | 0.05 | $250.00 |
| 09-24 15:29 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | BUY | 0.05 | $250.00 |