PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

lliwog

0xaa91de1186c7bb9abdc639ef2608b41827edeac3

Realised P&L
$-596.05
Volume
$8.1k
Markets traded
159
Open portfolio
$11.74

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-7.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded159
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration9.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2600.245$4.90$0.30
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3800.130$3.90$7.50
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.2500.260$2.60+$0.10
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0890.011$0.34$2.33
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? · Yes0.1680.000$0.00$1.68
Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes0.4120.000$0.00$8.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-22 18:12Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.59$5.90
08-22 18:09Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.26$5.20
07-16 18:38Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceBUY0.59$5.90
07-13 14:59Will France win on 2026-07-14?BUY0.4125$8.25
07-10 06:44Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?BUY0.1675$1.68
07-09 21:34Will France win on 2026-07-09?SELL0.975$19.50
07-08 21:04Will France win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.63$6.30
07-06 19:08Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027?BUY0.25$2.50
07-06 19:01Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ETBUY0.3$3.00
07-06 18:54Will France win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.62$6.20
05-23 12:26Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ETBUY0.51$5.10
05-22 20:12Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ETBUY0.35$7.00
05-22 20:05Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ETBUY0.38$7.60
05-21 15:58Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?BUY0.65$6.50
05-02 20:48Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?BUY0.795$7.95