lliwog
0xaa91de1186c7bb9abdc639ef2608b41827edeac3
- Realised P&L
- $-596.05
- Volume
- $8.1k
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $11.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.245 | $4.90 | −$0.30 |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.130 | $3.90 | −$7.50 |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.260 | $2.60 | +$0.10 |
| Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.011 | $0.34 | −$2.33 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.68 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$94.23at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
- +$82.62at 0.730China Open: Linda Noskova vs Amanda Anisimova
- +$67.18at 0.659Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
- +$63.03at 0.681Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
- +$62.38at 0.650US government shutdown by October 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-22 18:12 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $5.90 |
| 08-22 18:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 07-16 18:38 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.59 | $5.90 |
| 07-13 14:59 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4125 | $8.25 |
| 07-10 06:44 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.1675 | $1.68 |
| 07-09 21:34 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | SELL | 0.975 | $19.50 |
| 07-08 21:04 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 07-06 19:08 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 07-06 19:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |
| 07-06 18:54 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |
| 05-23 12:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 05-22 20:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 05-22 20:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET | BUY | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 05-21 15:58 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 05-02 20:48 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.795 | $7.95 |