0xaA692D596614BF964AC151277b65841fc4433b00-1766187024973
0xaa692d596614bf964ac151277b65841fc4433b00
- Realised P&L
- $-364.38
- Volume
- $20.7k
- Markets traded
- 652
- Open portfolio
- $0.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded652
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.330 | 0.135 | $0.61 | −$0.89 |
| Will Trump say "Electric" or "Electricity" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · No | 0.670 | 0.004 | $0.01 | −$1.99 |
| Will Trump say "Somalia" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · No | 0.430 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.79at 0.168Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
- +$9.89at 0.568Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
- +$8.60at 0.548Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
- +$7.68at 0.287Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
- +$7.35at 0.824Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 18:11 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.329999967 | $1.50 |
| 10-03 18:10 | Will Trump say "Electric" or "Electricity" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $2.00 |
| 10-03 18:08 | Will Trump say "Somalia" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.4299999807 | $2.00 |
| 09-25 17:42 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.78 | $3.63 |
| 09-25 17:42 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.91 |
| 09-25 16:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | SELL | 0.88 | $2.45 |
| 09-25 16:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 16:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | SELL | 0.51 | $2.50 |
| 09-25 16:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | SELL | 0.46 | $6.76 |
| 09-25 16:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 16:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | SELL | 0.69 | $6.76 |
| 09-25 16:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 16:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | SELL | 0.18 | $0.31 |
| 09-25 16:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 16:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | SELL | 0.21 | $0.72 |