0xaa4f0eeaf4e1c13644a014928d13f8c7b024ec8d
- Realised P&L
- $2.43
- Volume
- $611.00
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $93.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.20at 0.500US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$0.33at 0.500US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$0.04at 0.932Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.069Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$-0.03at 0.942Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 20:54 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $5.34 |
| 07-13 17:44 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $8.28 |
| 07-12 10:20 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.046 | $1.20 |
| 07-10 21:16 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.788 | $3.94 |
| 07-07 14:06 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $11.04 |
| 07-05 05:46 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.90 |
| 07-01 17:37 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.066 | $1.98 |
| 06-24 18:36 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.879 | $7.91 |
| 06-22 14:32 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 06-19 14:01 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 06-17 02:57 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.519 | $3.63 |
| 06-13 00:45 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 06-10 15:23 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.03 |
| 06-07 14:42 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.879 | $10.55 |
| 06-01 22:34 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.52 | $3.64 |