0xaa37e5d49d2de8f402a3a6c88a940fbc8dec90e1
- Realised P&L
- $-10.74
- Volume
- $210.66
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $6.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? · Yes | 0.495 | 0.255 | $6.59 | −$6.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.42at 0.480Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.90at 0.330Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?
- +$0.35at 0.963Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
- +$0.15at 0.970Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
- +$0.06at 0.993Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 14:34 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3174999185 | $1.85 |
| 07-19 14:33 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 06-16 09:54 | Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? | BUY | 0.4954515919 | $12.81 |
| 05-04 17:31 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 05-04 17:30 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.9699998332 | $5.00 |
| 05-04 17:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.9629999969 | $9.00 |
| 01-30 21:04 | US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 01-30 21:01 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.9929999008 | $9.00 |