UnderdogOutlier
0xa9cf33875d94900c2c16c9c58f42e327c980c8b9
- Realised P&L
- $9.5k
- Volume
- $3.23M
- Markets traded
- 2,015
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,015
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.4kat 0.246Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025?
- +$4.3kat 0.015Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?
- +$2.7kat 0.115Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.1kat 0.040Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?
- +$809.59at 0.762Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 11:59 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.0240918946 | $93.60 |
| 09-18 11:57 | Will SpearShot Win the ADC Race 2026? | SELL | 0.1974913656 | $42.31 |
| 09-18 05:23 | Will SpearShot Win the ADC Race 2026? | SELL | 0.1418926251 | $22.49 |
| 09-18 02:12 | Will RED Canids Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2 | BUY | 0.002 | $0.12 |
| 09-17 22:10 | Will NattyNatt Win the ADC Race 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $22.69 |
| 09-17 22:09 | Will SpearShot Win the ADC Race 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $15.75 |
| 09-17 22:09 | Will SpearShot Win the ADC Race 2026? | BUY | 0.1295473887 | $114.78 |
| 09-17 22:08 | Will NattyNatt Win the ADC Race 2026? | BUY | 0.199304859 | $200.70 |
| 09-17 20:49 | Will SpearShot Win the ADC Race 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $7.42 |
| 09-16 13:49 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.059 | $0.93 |
| 09-16 13:48 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31? | BUY | 0.051 | $2.55 |
| 09-16 13:47 | KBO: KT Wiz vs. Hanwha Eagles | SELL | 0.51 | $2.48 |
| 09-16 13:44 | KBO: KT Wiz vs. Hanwha Eagles | SELL | 0.52 | $44.06 |
| 09-16 06:56 | KBO: KT Wiz vs. Hanwha Eagles | BUY | 0.54999999 | $19.23 |
| 09-16 06:56 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | SELL | 0.0581669974 | $20.52 |