0xa9ab043187d5664a07c6ce6c69b68f34c3f8c307
0xa9ab043187d5664a07c6ce6c69b68f34c3f8c307
- Realised P&L
- $-80.34
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 214
- Open portfolio
- $11.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded214
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.980 | $3.45 | +$0.95 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30? · Yes | 0.310 | 1.000 | $3.23 | +$2.23 |
| Will Trump say "Reagan" during his rally in Oklahoma? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.765 | $1.91 | −$0.16 |
| Will Trump praise Jon Rahm in September? · No | 0.780 | 0.940 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Trump say "ICE" during his rally in Oklahoma? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.755 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.165 | $0.86 | −$1.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.12at 0.290Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March?
- +$5.62at 0.230Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?
- +$5.09at 0.480Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250?
- +$4.90at 0.310Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
- +$4.77at 0.319Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 Rally?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-27 15:45 | Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? | BUY | 0.248480112 | $2.39 |
| 05-27 15:37 | Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? | BUY | 0.2178458629 | $2.23 |
| 05-27 15:16 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999341 | $2.19 |
| 05-22 08:57 | Will Trump attend his son's wedding? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 05-21 16:13 | Will Trump say "Chair" this week? | BUY | 0.2699999232 | $2.04 |
| 05-19 20:16 | Will Trump say "Hell" during Coast Guard event? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 05-04 23:42 | Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.95 |
| 05-03 10:24 | Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.4799999608 | $2.45 |
| 04-29 13:04 | Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3) | BUY | 0.3599998874 | $1.79 |
| 04-27 11:45 | Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 04-26 09:30 | Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April? | BUY | 0.2299999206 | $1.68 |
| 04-24 08:13 | Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? | BUY | 0.2699998831 | $1.54 |
| 04-23 17:12 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on April 24? | BUY | 0.4399999026 | $2.24 |
| 04-23 16:56 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on April 24? | BUY | 0.3599998826 | $1.75 |
| 04-22 23:21 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during WHCA Dinner events? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.37 |