lanche
0xa9a9ed0579dcd4983f88127f1d6f518a0b181e71
- Realised P&L
- $-62.12
- Volume
- $31.7k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $64.42
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.820 | $45.10 | +$4.40 |
| Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.840 | $19.32 | +$2.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.09at 0.700Falcons vs. Vikings
- +$2.29at 0.840Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?
- +$-0.07at 0.999Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase?
- +$-0.09at 0.997Will Villarreal CF win La Liga?
- +$-5.80at 0.756Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 02:55 | Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.72 | $16.56 |
| 04-03 06:33 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.794 | $5.6k |
| 04-03 06:28 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.794 | $2.1k |
| 04-03 02:59 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.795 | $7.7k |
| 01-20 07:40 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | SELL | 0.755 | $4.4k |
| 01-19 08:13 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.756 | $4.4k |
| 10-13 07:49 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? | BUY | 0.8399999356 | $12.00 |
| 03-24 06:21 | Arkansas vs. Texas Tech | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 01-13 02:43 | Grizzlies vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.439999999 | $73.00 |
| 01-13 02:41 | Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? | SELL | 0.996 | $92.82 |
| 01-13 02:40 | Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? | BUY | 0.996999973 | $92.92 |
| 12-06 06:28 | Falcons vs. Vikings | BUY | 0.6999999911 | $63.22 |
| 12-06 03:02 | Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase? | SELL | 0.998 | $65.82 |
| 12-06 03:01 | Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase? | BUY | 0.999 | $65.89 |