JuanRah2
0xa99317a241014628badf274734c62b8a4d0a91f8
- Realised P&L
- $-15.15
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $4.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.890 | $2.47 | +$0.47 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No | 0.920 | 0.955 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? · No | 0.974 | 0.963 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance · Croatia | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.97at 0.508Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?
- +$0.89at 0.736Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?
- +$0.39at 0.557Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.36at 0.560US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.31at 0.570Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 19:40 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.9739999922 | $1.00 |
| 08-16 19:39 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 06-30 04:33 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 04:54 | Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 04:53 | Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 04:52 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0579999464 | $1.00 |
| 06-23 11:45 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.90 |
| 06-23 11:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 06-23 11:41 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 06-22 04:37 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 04:35 | Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 06-22 04:33 | Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.67 | $2.43 |
| 06-22 04:32 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.02 |
| 06-22 04:31 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? | SELL | 0.75 | $1.33 |
| 06-16 22:39 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | SELL | 0.9 | $4.92 |