0xa98eb807461aee34ab424905f91453128220daa3
- Realised P&L
- $694.75
- Volume
- $17.2k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $88.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.115 | $57.50 | −$6.16 |
| Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.029 | $11.43 | −$11.59 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.479 | $8.88 | −$2.42 |
| Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.017 | $6.78 | −$3.08 |
| Will James Wood hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? · Yes | 0.616 | 0.017 | $3.64 | −$128.15 |
| Will Shea Langeliers hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.001 | $0.17 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$399.74at 0.019Will "Mexico" win Ludwig's Streamer Games 2026?
- +$202.32at 0.302Will Matt Olson hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- +$160.86at 0.389Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
- +$82.88at 0.243Will Rafael Leao join Fenerbahce?
- +$52.55at 0.563Will there be 0-20 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 11:42 | Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.22 |
| 09-20 03:49 | Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1207653452 | $15.78 |
| 09-20 00:10 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.49 | $39.93 |
| 09-19 16:37 | Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1245 | $24.90 |
| 09-16 00:03 | Will there be 21-60 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $41.50 |
| 09-16 00:03 | Will there be 101-150 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $38.45 |
| 09-15 23:32 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $400.63 |
| 09-15 22:33 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3031119134 | $106.63 |
| 09-15 16:26 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6878604819 | $114.18 |
| 09-15 15:10 | Will there be 101-150 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $27.87 |
| 09-15 15:09 | Will there be 21-60 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026? | SELL | 0.265 | $12.19 |
| 09-15 15:09 | Will there be 151+ all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026? | BUY | 0.734 | $33.76 |
| 09-15 14:45 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6887981972 | $51.20 |
| 09-14 18:59 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.767 | $92.04 |
| 09-10 14:16 | Will there be 21-60 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.22 |