rshshaprii
0xa981d0b4c566080555ed49c029d9a3875c5582b8
- Realised P&L
- $-3.4k
- Volume
- $25.6k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $76.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.819 | 0.015 | $76.78 | −$4.1k |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? · No | 0.779 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$510.00 |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? · No | 0.207 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.60 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$781.63at 0.806Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$327.25at 0.900Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$62.54at 0.239Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$25.95at 0.713Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?
- +$21.59at 0.742Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 22:18 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7? | BUY | 0.0149672591 | $10.00 |
| 06-29 20:30 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999987 | $30.00 |
| 06-29 20:18 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6169154213 | $100.00 |
| 06-29 12:25 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8344526535 | $4.0k |
| 06-29 12:25 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.9927652097 | $4.2k |
| 06-29 10:30 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.509803917 | $50.00 |
| 06-29 10:04 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.7787492361 | $510.00 |
| 06-28 21:49 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999814 | $10.00 |
| 06-21 10:46 | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.68 | $13.60 |
| 06-21 00:40 | Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? | BUY | 0.0989999901 | $10.00 |
| 06-20 23:34 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.977 | $31.01 |
| 06-20 10:58 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.6299999716 | $20.00 |
| 05-22 22:38 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.7269999952 | $100.00 |
| 05-22 09:51 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.7479999938 | $100.00 |
| 05-19 22:33 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.6578082479 | $100.00 |