0xa973d88F52C4027c118e3aDB025690D3224cF321-1774259083285
0xa973d88f52c4027c118e3adb025690d3224cf321
- Realised P&L
- $-196.71
- Volume
- $12.1k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $55.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.065 | $44.10 | −$3.39 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.004 | $11.83 | −$21.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.24at 0.021Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?
- +$-7.42at 0.016Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$-22.33at 0.063Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
- +$-143.83at 0.041Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 19:56 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.01 | $33.80 |
| 09-07 19:49 | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0223444651 | $33.80 |
| 09-04 21:52 | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0208662143 | $31.56 |
| 09-03 08:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999987 | $47.49 |
| 06-09 18:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0169999989 | $15.95 |
| 06-06 07:52 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.022 | $16.35 |
| 05-26 05:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0289999983 | $16.32 |
| 05-14 11:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $16.17 |
| 05-12 19:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $16.12 |
| 04-29 04:49 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $32.20 |
| 04-06 20:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $30.73 |
| 03-23 14:45 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.016 | $2.00 |
| 03-23 14:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.11 |
| 03-23 14:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.60 |
| 03-23 14:38 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.28 |