almostunmarried
0xa95b023595407a5a531253bc4bd50b007405fe3a
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $274.3k
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.995 | $3.9k | +$217.29 |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.759 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? · No | 0.872 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.03 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? · No | 0.817 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$446.25at 0.703MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$319.58at 0.938US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
- +$278.56at 0.740MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$275.38at 0.805Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
- +$220.09at 0.960Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 23:32 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.956 | $3.80 |
| 08-29 16:42 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $114.00 |
| 08-29 16:41 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.759 | $8.32 |
| 08-29 16:40 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.759 | $11.38 |
| 08-29 16:38 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.759 | $23.97 |
| 08-29 16:38 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.758 | $397.19 |
| 08-27 03:54 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.94 | $3.7k |
| 08-22 03:32 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? | BUY | 0.989 | $251.21 |
| 08-19 00:35 | Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.0k |
| 08-19 00:34 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | BUY | 0.997 | $157.13 |
| 08-15 01:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.1k |
| 08-15 01:53 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $4.5k |
| 08-15 00:20 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $258.96 |
| 08-03 09:01 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.994 | $4.5k |
| 08-01 03:26 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.8k |