hsjd
0xa95abed44d2aab0aa5ed96dea955c953f5a0cdf8
- Realised P&L
- $-30.74
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $1.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.185 | $1.85 | −$2.65 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 1? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.40 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 18? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 14? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.40 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 15? · Up | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? · No | 0.845 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.42at 0.750Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 15?
- +$42.06at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$41.66at 0.754Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
- +$1.16at 0.992No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
- +$0.58at 0.996Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 03:49 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 08-18 09:25 | Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 08-18 09:22 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 07-08 07:25 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999687 | $15.50 |
| 06-14 02:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? | BUY | 0.9989999892 | $85.00 |
| 06-07 03:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $85.40 |
| 05-29 08:05 | Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $85.30 |
| 05-25 01:50 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $85.20 |
| 05-17 07:58 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $85.10 |
| 05-13 09:48 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999892 | $85.00 |
| 05-11 08:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? | BUY | 0.9989999891 | $84.99 |
| 05-08 02:59 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $84.90 |
| 04-29 07:20 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY | 0.9989999986 | $84.80 |
| 04-25 09:47 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25? | BUY | 0.9989999981 | $84.75 |
| 04-20 09:15 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $84.67 |