0xa94b93b02bf2ccdc07cda32a21053519a845235a
0xa94b93b02bf2ccdc07cda32a21053519a845235a
- Realised P&L
- $-841.04
- Volume
- $34.0k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $305.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes | 0.262 | 0.157 | $160.61 | −$107.51 |
| Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.025 | $144.63 | −$64.79 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 28? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.74 |
| Bitcoin above 80,200 on August 27, 5PM ET? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.11 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins · Philadelphia Phillies | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$93.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$114.61at 0.868Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
- +$107.25at 0.690Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?
- +$106.20at 0.531Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?
- +$87.82at 0.882Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
- +$82.67at 0.909Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 13:16 | Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.280871502 | $79.59 |
| 10-30 20:15 | Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.2548961353 | $188.53 |
| 10-30 20:11 | Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.0395730977 | $190.43 |
| 10-30 20:10 | Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.0225520194 | $16.00 |
| 10-30 20:08 | Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.02 | $3.00 |
| 10-05 03:09 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.84 | $994.31 |
| 10-04 22:08 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8449999977 | $20.17 |
| 10-04 22:07 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8469999955 | $27.19 |
| 10-04 22:07 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8479999884 | $54.99 |
| 10-04 22:07 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8456198434 | $111.22 |
| 10-04 22:07 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.844331775 | $224.96 |
| 10-04 22:06 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8399264632 | $150.54 |
| 10-04 21:31 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8509999836 | $14.52 |
| 10-04 21:30 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8509999916 | $60.05 |
| 10-04 21:30 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8509999982 | $248.36 |