0xa90ba98311fa236f784d07a1eeaf6440646a59a8
0xa90ba98311fa236f784d07a1eeaf6440646a59a8
- Realised P&L
- $-15.31
- Volume
- $128.34
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $0.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.505 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.490Will Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.80at 0.400Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.53at 0.572Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.580Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 10:54 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 12:07 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 23:43 | Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 02:41 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-15 03:15 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 18:31 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 22:29 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 08:43 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 00:42 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 04:36 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 20:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 11:29 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $590 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 03:29 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 19:27 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 17:12 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |