0xa8f9e522a0bc214934ea4637d5010d1bc37d2573
0xa8f9e522a0bc214934ea4637d5010d1bc37d2573
- Realised P&L
- $2.8k
- Volume
- $137.3k
- Markets traded
- 274
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded274
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.301Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
- +$479.30at 0.276NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?
- +$336.69at 0.483Will Andrew Cuomo win Manhattan in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
- +$310.00at 0.380Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?
- +$296.73at 0.304Will Andrew Cuomo win Queens in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 13:22 | Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay? | BUY | 0.9838421927 | $296.14 |
| 09-21 03:01 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? | BUY | 0.5489795918 | $26.90 |
| 09-21 03:01 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? | BUY | 0.528962963 | $71.41 |
| 09-20 20:52 | Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay? | BUY | 0.4021866787 | $97.94 |
| 09-20 20:50 | Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay? | BUY | 0.3 | $17.14 |
| 09-20 20:47 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.40 |
| 09-20 20:46 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 16 and September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.0438703606 | $10.02 |
| 09-20 20:41 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.256 | $64.00 |
| 09-20 20:35 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 16 and September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.0208268201 | $5.17 |
| 09-20 20:33 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? | BUY | 0.2657142857 | $93.00 |
| 09-20 04:46 | Will Andy Eads win the 2026 Denton County Judge election? | BUY | 0.795 | $7.95 |
| 09-20 02:56 | Will “Dandelion” by Ella Langley win Album of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? | BUY | 0.54 | $246.25 |
| 09-19 16:03 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? | BUY | 0.8015314717 | $785.06 |
| 09-19 01:08 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? | BUY | 0.0968368667 | $145.26 |
| 09-18 23:49 | Will Abby McKibben win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? | BUY | 0.3 | $12.00 |