FishyAF
0xa8d2776014f3eb99b6c208d3daa22d9014b6d6d2
- Realised P&L
- $-6.7k
- Volume
- $1.48M
- Markets traded
- 375
- Open portfolio
- $10.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded375
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.338Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation?
- +$1.8kat 0.119Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?
- +$1.7kat 0.682Circle IPO in 2025?
- +$1.6kat 0.720Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)
- +$1.6kat 0.525US recession in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-15 04:09 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0179590821 | $17.46 |
| 03-24 16:23 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $137.15 |
| 03-24 16:22 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.4892912562 | $201.17 |
| 03-18 16:13 | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 02-09 18:24 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.51 | $29.84 |
| 01-27 23:39 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.63 | $92.61 |
| 01-27 23:38 | Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.4708896211 | $148.63 |
| 01-20 01:43 | Spread: Indiana (-7.5) | BUY | 0.58 | $58.00 |
| 01-19 21:41 | Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 50% by March 31? | BUY | 0.8940425079 | $470.70 |
| 01-18 07:04 | Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.3k |
| 01-18 07:04 | Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $38.66 |
| 01-18 07:04 | Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8486708 | $2.1k |
| 12-25 19:16 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.1 | $135.00 |
| 12-24 21:41 | Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.13 |
| 12-22 16:53 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.013 | $12.09 |