anciano
0xa8b7f8b34185e9cc62c471e1d353595148a3ee3c
- Realised P&L
- $5.1k
- Volume
- $21.41M
- Markets traded
- 3,367
- Open portfolio
- $75.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,367
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.0kat 0.005Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on February 1, 2023?
- +$6.8kat 0.073Will SBF be federally indicted by EOY?
- +$6.6kat 0.181Senate: Will a Democrat (Masto) or Republican (Laxalt) win in Nevada?
- +$6.1kat 0.002Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2022 Alaska Senate election?
- +$5.7kat 0.498Will Kevin McCarthy be elected Speaker of the House in the 118th Congress?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 23:48 | Will the Miami Heat be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? | BUY | 0.1 | $40.00 |
| 08-01 12:26 | Will New Orleans Saints win the 2026 NFC South? | SELL | 0.72 | $191.52 |
| 07-31 22:12 | Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $303.63 |
| 07-31 21:47 | Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? | BUY | 0.1739447777 | $206.19 |
| 07-31 20:04 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $204.84 |
| 07-31 19:15 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.971 | $14.56 |
| 07-31 05:15 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.03 |
| 07-31 05:03 | Will the 49ers win the season series against the Rams during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | BUY | 0.75 | $205.50 |
| 07-31 04:43 | Will the Packers win the season series against the Vikings during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | BUY | 0.65 | $191.17 |
| 07-31 02:22 | Will the Miami Heat be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? | BUY | 0.91 | $65.52 |
| 07-30 18:00 | Will the Toronto Raptors make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | SELL | 0.44 | $8.80 |
| 07-30 17:59 | Will the Toronto Raptors make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.2858201058 | $108.04 |
| 07-30 17:44 | Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.74 | $3.70 |
| 07-30 06:58 | Will the Atlanta Hawks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | SELL | 0.45 | $90.00 |
| 07-30 06:40 | Will the Utah Jazz make the 2027 NBA Play-In Tournament? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |