naturalbornchiller
0xa8b380701d5bbc4442d02c9e6b9f0d6a9113aeb0
- Realised P&L
- $-24.3k
- Volume
- $314.9k
- Markets traded
- 150
- Open portfolio
- $322.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded150
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 4.5 · No | 0.610 | 0.645 | $322.50 | +$17.50 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 · Over | 0.508 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 · Over | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$999.96 |
| Giants vs. Jets · Jets | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.95 |
| Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) · Colorado Rockies | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers · Texas Rangers | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets · New York Mets | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| The Citadel vs. Wofford: O/U 43.5 · Under | 0.494 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$698.12 |
| Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) · Los Angeles Angels | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) · Detroit Tigers | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$999.60 |
| O/U 56.5 · Over | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies · Baltimore Orioles | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 · Under | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.541Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
- +$1.9kat 0.392San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
- +$1.7kat 0.402Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
- +$1.6kat 0.452Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics
- +$1.6kat 0.452Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 13:34 | Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5699999998 | $999.92 |
| 09-26 13:34 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners | BUY | 0.38 | $999.78 |
| 09-26 13:27 | New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals | BUY | 0.47 | $999.84 |
| 09-26 13:22 | Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) | BUY | 0.61 | $999.79 |
| 09-26 13:22 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals | BUY | 0.48 | $999.84 |
| 09-26 13:12 | Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins | BUY | 0.47 | $999.69 |
| 09-26 12:49 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $999.96 |
| 09-26 12:22 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $999.96 |
| 09-25 13:21 | Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | BUY | 0.37 | $999.74 |
| 09-25 13:09 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners | BUY | 0.4599999999 | $999.69 |
| 09-25 12:46 | Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.5290420314 | $999.58 |
| 09-25 12:19 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.51 | $999.54 |
| 09-25 12:17 | Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.5099999998 | $999.58 |
| 09-24 23:37 | Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 | BUY | 0.5299999998 | $999.54 |
| 09-24 20:02 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.5399729984 | $999.90 |