Gamlet77
0xa8b108be047cc21b2558432a48567739f436da36
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $31.6k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $288.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.214 | 0.065 | $288.70 | −$662.89 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.262 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$364.31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$154.99 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET · Down | 0.211 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$607.38at 0.574Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?
- +$134.74at 0.467Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$103.49at 0.437Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$88.91at 0.770Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?
- +$0.70at 0.330Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 18:17 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2624999995 | $364.31 |
| 07-19 18:14 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.55 | $381.06 |
| 07-16 17:03 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.55 | $140.94 |
| 07-15 12:03 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.085534101 | $126.00 |
| 07-08 10:41 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.5499999996 | $522.00 |
| 07-03 20:09 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2845503347 | $350.00 |
| 07-03 13:39 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2741549831 | $474.00 |
| 07-03 13:38 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $0.85 |
| 06-28 15:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | BUY | 0.2108224708 | $25.00 |
| 06-18 12:32 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | SELL | 0.947574123 | $1.2k |
| 06-16 15:22 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.00 |
| 06-16 12:18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $10.00 |
| 06-16 06:20 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0309950915 | $85.00 |
| 06-15 21:24 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.056999999 | $50.00 |
| 05-18 12:43 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $100.00 |