Tof
0xa894f858d645ceaeea7ff3b4328674636f94fb52
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $178.8k
- Markets traded
- 292
- Open portfolio
- $73.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded292
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.007 | $46.88 | −$3.13 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.295 | $19.82 | −$1.68 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.003 | $4.50 | −$4.50 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.162 | $1.72 | +$0.72 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.035 | $0.49 | −$0.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$549.94at 0.259Will England win on 2026-07-18?
- +$339.44at 0.176Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$296.68at 0.452Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
- +$286.85at 0.154Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$270.96at 0.215Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 22:16 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas? | BUY | 0.008 | $50.00 |
| 10-28 14:16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.006 | $0.00 |
| 10-06 08:57 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1699999995 | $50.00 |
| 10-06 08:57 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1699999997 | $20.00 |
| 10-03 16:50 | Will Luxembourg win on 2026-10-03? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 15:39 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 00:02 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 08-21 18:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 18:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 23:10 | Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? | SELL | 0.04 | $40.03 |
| 08-18 10:54 | Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.08 | $25.00 |
| 08-16 19:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET | BUY | 0.2089998782 | $1.00 |
| 08-12 20:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | BUY | 0.4299999979 | $50.00 |
| 08-12 02:26 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.7309999968 | $50.00 |
| 08-11 23:45 | Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.1452708515 | $100.00 |