send
0xa87a63f0e4df22d34ec8aae2dd3d2a12cbfa6093
- Realised P&L
- $4.8k
- Volume
- $182.7k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $161.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.004 | $161.46 | −$38.53 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET · Up | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.07 |
| France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 · Under | 0.484 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$297.40 |
| Spurs vs. Thunder · Thunder | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$121.82 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$134.51 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Spurs vs. Knicks · Knicks | 0.426 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$596.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.205Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$3.1kat 0.330Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.8kat 0.473Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?
- +$1.3kat 0.226Spurs vs. Knicks
- +$684.93at 0.452Knicks vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 18:18 | Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0055739776 | $200.00 |
| 09-11 15:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $15.94 |
| 09-11 15:30 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $48.00 |
| 09-11 14:54 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $70.58 |
| 09-11 14:51 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $800.00 |
| 07-06 02:58 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.013 | $1.05 |
| 07-06 02:57 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.019 | $18.19 |
| 07-06 02:30 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.1153333333 | $5.19 |
| 07-06 02:29 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.032 | $41.60 |
| 07-06 02:25 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.0349999803 | $1.67 |
| 07-06 02:24 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.035 | $11.08 |
| 07-06 02:23 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.032 | $32.00 |
| 07-06 02:13 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.032 | $29.73 |
| 07-03 19:43 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.025 | $338.07 |
| 06-27 22:21 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.023 | $450.94 |