PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xa8485E499d597746088ed85f15f4693FB1C78A1F-1771191606733

0xa8485e499d597746088ed85f15f4693fb1c78a1f

Realised P&L
$-66.21
Volume
$18.3k
Markets traded
100
Open portfolio
$2.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded100
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration13.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes0.0220.887$346.44+$338.00
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · No0.6620.970$329.43+$104.60
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? · No0.7600.973$148.10+$32.36
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027? · No0.5800.931$111.72+$42.12
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? · No0.8490.955$95.45+$10.56
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? · No0.8700.953$95.30+$8.30
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · No0.7600.705$92.16−$7.19
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? · No0.5500.900$90.00+$35.00
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes0.5000.435$87.00−$13.00
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? · No0.8510.945$86.68+$8.59
Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? · No0.7000.865$86.50+$16.50
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anthropic PBC? · No0.8410.911$85.65+$6.58
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? · No0.8900.998$85.29+$9.19
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.4200.355$71.00−$13.00
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No0.1580.938$32.81+$27.30

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-19 21:08Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?BUY0.8949999999$100.00
07-19 19:25Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.3989999983$100.00
07-18 22:13Will England win on 2026-07-18?BUY0.8899999996$100.00
05-28 21:29Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intelligence?BUY0.19$3.21
05-27 21:01Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals?BUY0.78$10.92
05-25 19:16Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National Intelligence?BUY0.87$91.35
05-25 11:48Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?BUY0.5859306066$51.00
05-25 10:15Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intelligence?BUY0.1793181818$15.78
05-25 08:51Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.79677487$197.59
05-24 21:47Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?BUY0.2018816954$8.67
05-24 13:13Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?BUY0.45$32.42
05-24 12:00Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?BUY0.0329215318$5.26
05-24 10:54Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?BUY0.8513081871$78.09
05-24 10:50Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?BUY0.76$115.74
05-24 10:48Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National Intelligence?BUY0.88$97.84