8bitfroggy
0xa8322d5fc2c151dd67213b37629b9f105771f846
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $19.1k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $703.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.975 | $312.98 | +$11.23 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · No | 0.917 | 0.960 | $169.59 | +$7.47 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.894 | 0.977 | $112.30 | +$9.49 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.984 | $108.19 | +$9.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$953.10at 0.594Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
- +$98.41at 0.912Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$48.85at 0.8215kt meteor strike in 2025?
- +$35.20at 0.700Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$33.00at 0.890Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 20:34 | Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | BUY | 0.26 | $52.00 |
| 10-12 20:18 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 10-12 20:16 | 5kt meteor strike in 2025? | BUY | 0.83 | $249.00 |
| 11-12 22:23 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? | BUY | 0.59409856 | $1.4k |