0xA81F2D16E576380a63Ac0F3498cAF9E1bE092F05-1772728443482
0xa81f2d16e576380a63ac0f3498caf9e1be092f05
- Realised P&L
- $-41.81
- Volume
- $10.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $1.46
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.115 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.045 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.726 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$307.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$72.95at 0.440US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$46.40at 0.640Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$46.33at 0.325Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
- +$25.28at 0.640Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$23.40at 0.660Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 06:20 | Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.0899999928 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 06:17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 16:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $7.20 |
| 07-08 01:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $15.24 |
| 06-29 10:02 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.3799999982 | $84.00 |
| 06-29 09:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | SELL | 0.92 | $82.79 |
| 06-26 05:09 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $57.50 |
| 06-24 07:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 06-23 13:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.962 | $53.38 |
| 06-23 03:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.94 | $47.00 |
| 06-20 13:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 06-19 05:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.53 | $53.00 |
| 06-16 11:53 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.988 | $59.27 |
| 06-15 16:55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.6413503448 | $18.60 |
| 06-15 15:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.63 | $80.00 |