0xa7d5e579b921595e4daf2cd3e47226599e1c8343
- Realised P&L
- $-1.71
- Volume
- $55.94
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $6.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.967 | 0.973 | $1.67 | +$0.01 |
| Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.980 | 0.986 | $1.37 | +$0.01 |
| Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? · No | 0.950 | 0.955 | $1.12 | +$0.01 |
| Will Matt Orlando win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election? · Yes | 0.942 | 0.994 | $1.09 | +$0.06 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.955 | $1.07 | +$0.06 |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.08at 0.932Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance
- +$0.05at 0.950Will Norway win the World Cup?
- +$0.05at 0.962Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.03at 0.974Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
- +$0.03at 0.929Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 06:31 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | SELL | 0.995 | $1.07 |
| 09-01 10:34 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | BUY | 0.9839994041 | $1.07 |
| 08-12 22:33 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9849995643 | $1.04 |
| 08-09 09:51 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | SELL | 0.967 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 06:28 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.9399990879 | $1.01 |
| 07-28 06:39 | Will Matt Orlando win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9419999579 | $1.03 |
| 07-24 20:10 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | SELL | 0.959 | $1.01 |
| 07-21 05:55 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | BUY | 0.949999525 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 23:26 | Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.11 |
| 07-20 08:07 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.9739999923 | $1.26 |
| 07-19 22:32 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.962 | $1.14 |
| 07-19 22:32 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.921 | $0.99 |
| 07-17 06:59 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $1.04 |
| 07-14 21:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 20:18 | Will Norway win the World Cup? | BUY | 0.9479999851 | $1.02 |