keborgan
0xa793173aa424d101cf9d7d7f0f4941651d4ad077
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $295.8k
- Markets traded
- 143
- Open portfolio
- $8.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded143
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.971 | 0.994 | $4.6k | +$106.31 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.947 | 0.983 | $2.1k | +$73.92 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.980 | $1.1k | +$101.12 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.915 | $486.70 | −$13.30 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.984 | 0.988 | $100.36 | +$0.36 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.239Solana Up or Down on June 20?
- +$413.65at 0.935Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on May 29 at 5 PM ET?
- +$409.41at 0.880Bitcoin Up or Down on July 3?
- +$395.61at 0.910Solana Up or Down on June 16?
- +$315.63at 0.950Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on May 27 at 5 PM ET?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 06:16 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9839999928 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 22:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $500.00 |
| 09-21 21:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9482140239 | $119.00 |
| 07-20 21:17 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999786 | $10.00 |
| 05-05 21:07 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.0148849394 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 13:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? | BUY | 0.96 | $300.00 |
| 05-01 12:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? | BUY | 0.9777063946 | $100.00 |
| 05-01 12:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? | BUY | 0.96 | $200.00 |
| 02-11 09:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 11? | BUY | 0.96 | $100.00 |
| 01-15 07:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9510428894 | $500.00 |
| 01-03 15:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9746807828 | $3.0k |
| 01-03 15:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9499999999 | $1000.00 |
| 01-03 15:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $500.00 |
| 01-01 09:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.968268569 | $1000.00 |
| 01-01 09:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.796812749 | $100.00 |