AMRSK
0xa791d4a076c1f818920e13a548f9a52dc623e0cd
- Realised P&L
- $-52.38
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $23.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.981 | $15.57 | +$5.57 |
| Revolut IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.040 | $5.64 | −$4.36 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.055 | $1.90 | −$8.10 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.85at 0.560Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
- +$7.64at 0.567Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$7.39at 0.570Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
- +$7.37at 0.580Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?
- +$7.32at 0.530Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 19:01 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? | BUY | 0.3499999918 | $15.00 |
| 05-09 19:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999846 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 18:59 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.1259999896 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 18:58 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY | 0.5799999861 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 18:56 | Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | BUY | 0.5699999966 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 18:56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999349 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 18:55 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.6122395971 | $23.10 |
| 05-09 18:54 | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? | SELL | 0.991 | $17.38 |
| 05-09 18:54 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.151 | $9.40 |
| 04-23 20:27 | Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 04-23 20:23 | Will Slavia Prague win Czechia Fortuna Liga? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $9.96 |
| 04-23 20:23 | Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.629999988 | $10.00 |
| 04-23 20:22 | ECB rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.8235294069 | $10.00 |
| 04-23 20:21 | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? | BUY | 0.5699999966 | $10.00 |
| 04-23 20:21 | Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9589999623 | $10.00 |