rat-race-harmony
0xa7699418757cc816fca2a73e8c2ecc5a6386c98e
- Realised P&L
- $19.25
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $104.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election · Yes | 0.130 | 1.000 | $92.30 | +$80.30 |
| USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.180 | 1.000 | $11.27 | +$9.24 |
| Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.019 | $0.57 | −$4.43 |
| Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.81 |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.423 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.69 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET · Down | 0.424 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.02 |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| BitBoy convicted? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.97at 0.572Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
- +$20.70at 0.694Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
- +$11.20at 0.605Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
- +$2.57at 0.468Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
- +$0.55at 0.010EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-31 14:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET | BUY | 0.3099999895 | $18.01 |
| 03-31 14:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | BUY | 0.6699999839 | $9.52 |
| 03-31 14:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5499999807 | $9.35 |
| 03-31 14:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | BUY | 0.209999974 | $4.43 |
| 03-31 14:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $9.54 |
| 03-31 14:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | BUY | 0.2449603491 | $13.37 |
| 03-31 14:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | BUY | 0.8699999791 | $19.63 |
| 03-31 14:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $9.84 |
| 03-31 13:58 | EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.015 | $1.65 |
| 03-31 13:53 | Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.16 |
| 03-31 13:52 | EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4226826796 | $20.00 |
| 03-31 13:49 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.219909791 | $9.99 |
| 03-31 12:02 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.22 |
| 03-31 11:56 | Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.50 |
| 03-31 11:56 | Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.25 |