0xPolyNoob
0xa74151da0848ed81f119cfba03822e82dac78d0e
- Realised P&L
- $370.78
- Volume
- $306.2k
- Markets traded
- 487
- Open portfolio
- $147.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded487
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.137 | $56.70 | −$57.60 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.025 | $47.56 | −$170.24 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.055 | $13.75 | −$13.75 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.085 | $11.90 | −$17.50 |
| Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.003 | $8.69 | −$0.57 |
| Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.002 | $7.50 | −$9.47 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.060 | $1.06 | −$1.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$156.65at 0.999Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
- +$78.50at 0.994Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January?
- +$77.01at 0.692Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$64.59at 0.763Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$57.53at 0.939Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-19 19:37 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.40 |
| 08-16 07:57 | Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | SELL | 0.007 | $7.17 |
| 07-21 20:46 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $2.75 |
| 07-05 22:07 | Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.242176358 | $24.03 |
| 06-27 00:00 | Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.94 | $153.12 |
| 06-17 20:47 | Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.56 | $33.60 |
| 06-16 22:18 | Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.89 | $93.96 |
| 06-15 06:01 | Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 06-14 19:37 | Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.12 | $24.00 |
| 06-14 17:23 | Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.92 | $184.00 |
| 06-11 21:50 | Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.32 | $9.60 |
| 06-11 06:05 | Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.55 | $22.00 |
| 06-11 06:05 | Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7 | $31.50 |
| 06-11 06:04 | Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.49 | $19.60 |
| 06-10 20:45 | Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |