0xa72bdfba24f2b2d008e16aff00f74a836d361e58
0xa72bdfba24f2b2d008e16aff00f74a836d361e58
- Realised P&L
- $133.76
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $7.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-05 House seat? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.024 | $4.77 | −$7.49 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-18 House seat? · No | 0.948 | 0.984 | $1.37 | +$0.05 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.015 | $0.86 | −$2.87 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat? · No | 0.060 | 0.013 | $0.49 | −$1.68 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat? · No | 0.080 | 0.015 | $0.43 | −$1.86 |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? · No | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.52 |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.88at 0.060Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$53.39at 0.120Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$21.68at 0.822Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$9.24at 0.090Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
- +$4.86at 0.230Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 14:34 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat? | SELL | 0.24 | $1.21 |
| 06-10 14:34 | Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.65 |
| 04-21 08:43 | Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $22.01 |
| 04-21 08:43 | Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? | SELL | 0.2768474282 | $28.74 |
| 04-21 08:43 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.09 | $3.10 |
| 04-21 08:43 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $100.28 |
| 04-20 01:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | SELL | 0.945 | $2.18 |
| 04-20 01:31 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | SELL | 0.665 | $1.65 |
| 04-20 01:31 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.08 |
| 04-20 01:31 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.76 | $5.13 |
| 04-20 01:31 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.63 |
| 04-20 01:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | SELL | 0.9666958525 | $10.49 |
| 04-20 01:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | SELL | 0.903 | $22.03 |
| 04-20 01:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | SELL | 0.051 | $1.31 |
| 04-20 01:30 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $49.24 |